During the war in Ukraine in 2022, construction costs temporarily rose by more than 15 percent - and the new-build market collapsed, with effects that are still being felt today. Now the construction industry faces the next geopolitical shock and new construction industry trends: the conflict in the Middle East is once again driving up energy price trends and the cost of raw materials. For roofing companies, the question is no longer whether international conflicts will affect the roofing market - but how strongly and for how long.
This article outlines concrete scenarios and shows what you can do now to make your business future-proof.
How the Middle East conflict is already affecting the roofing market today
The connection is more direct than many think: concrete, steel, insulation materials and oil-based membranes have all become significantly more expensive since the Middle East conflict escalated - a development the German construction sector has been warning about from the start. Bitumen, polystyrene insulation and plastic membranes are directly based on mineral oil. When energy prices rise, these building material prices inevitably follow.
European gas prices (TTF) temporarily doubled to over 50 euros per megawatt hour due to the conflict - a level that makes energy-intensive production across Europe more expensive. At the same time, rising freight and insurance costs are pushing up the price of many upstream materials, while uncertain transport routes increase supply chain issues and delivery risk.
For roofing contractors this means in concrete terms:
- Costing quotes becomes harder, because material prices fluctuate more strongly and material shortages can appear with little warning
- Delivery times are less reliable, which makes project planning more difficult
- Margins come under pressure, when fixed-price offers collide with rising purchase costs
Three scenarios: What could be coming your way?
If the conflict drags on, economic growth in Germany could fall to at most 0.2 percent in 2026, according to the IMK - a risk scenario that would hit the entire construction cycle and wider construction industry trends. Experts at the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs see a clear risk of a significantly tighter supply situation, depending on how long the conflict lasts and whether the Strait of Hormuz might be blocked.
| Scenario | Probability | Impact on construction material prices | Impact on roofing market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short Conflict (Summer 2026) | Medium | Temporary increase, then normalization | Moderate price increases, orders remain stable |
| Medium-long Conflict (through end of 2026) | Medium-High | Concrete, steel, and insulation materials permanently more expensive | Pricing becomes more difficult, margins under pressure |
| Escalation & Hormuz Blockade | Low-Medium | Massive energy price shock, severe material shortage | New construction collapses, renovation as an option |
Regardless of the exact scenario, experience from 2022 shows this: companies that plan ahead recover faster and lose fewer contracts to better-prepared competitors.
What does this mean in concrete terms for demand in the roofing trade?
Here we see an interesting split - and the good news is in the detail:
New-build under pressure: When people have less purchasing power because of higher energy price trends, they also have less scope to invest in building a new home, explains Sebastian Dullien, scientific director of the IMK at the Hans Böckler Foundation. Rising interest rates, more expensive building materials and nervous investors are slowing down new projects.
Refurbishment as an opportunity: Energy-efficient roof refurbishments are becoming more attractive precisely because energy prices are rising. Anyone who insulates their roof and installs a photovoltaic system is actively protecting themselves from future energy price hikes. Roofing companies that position themselves here can use the shift in demand from new-build to existing stock as a targeted opportunity.
Photovoltaics as a growth driver: Technology adoption increases by 35 percent for solar roof integration, opening up new business models and higher average order values for roofing contractors. In a market environment with high energy prices, demand for PV systems grows - and with it the need for qualified roofers who understand these construction industry trends.
What you should do now: 5 concrete measures
You cannot control geopolitical crises - but you can increase your own resilience. These are the most effective levers:
1. Calculate more precisely to build in buffers
Inaccurate roof measurements lead directly to incorrect material calculations - and in volatile markets that quickly turns into losses when building material prices jump. With digital drone surveying you get centimetre-accurate 3D data for error-free quotes. This reduces expensive corrections later on - which carry even more weight when material prices are rising and material shortages put suppliers under pressure.
2. Manage material procurement proactively
Multiple suppliers, framework agreements and early ordering protect you from bottlenecks and supply chain issues. If you know your material requirements early - thanks to precise 3D roof models and digital planning data - you can pre-order in a targeted way before price spikes hit and before the roofing market faces the next wave of shortages.
3. Build price escalation clauses into your quotes
Especially for longer projects, you should contractually account for changes in material prices. This protects your margin without scaring off customers - transparent communication about market risks builds trust.
4. Focus on refurbishment and PV
Demand for energy-efficient refurbishment and photovoltaic installations is more crisis-resistant than the new-build segment of the roofing market. Companies that specialise here benefit even in difficult market phases. With the Airteam Fusion Plattform you generate PV planning data directly from drone surveys - faster and more precise than with traditional methods.
5. Use digital processes as a competitive advantage
In market phases with pressure on margins, the companies that work more efficiently are the ones that win. If you complete roof measurements by drone in minutes instead of hours, you can create more quotes in less time - and still secure contracts even when the roofing market is under stress. Our success stories show how companies use digital measurements to become measurably faster and more efficient.
How well is your business positioned? Take the check:
The bottom line: Crises as a driver of digitalisation
Geopolitical conflicts change markets - that was true after 2022 and it is becoming clear again now. For roofing companies this means: if you invest now in precision, efficiency and digitalisation, you will come out of the crisis stronger.
The good news: you do not have to wait for the conflict to end before you can act. Digital drone surveying makes your costing more precise, your quote generation faster and your project planning more reliable - regardless of how markets, supply chain issues or energy price trends develop. With the Airteam Fusion Plattform you save up to 90% of the time on measurements and receive DIN-certified 3D data in less than 24 hours.
Do you want to know how Airteam fits into your day-to-day operations in practice? Take a look at how the platform works:
Frequently asked questions on this topic
How strongly has the Iran conflict concretely affected the German roofing market?
Concrete, steel, insulation materials, and oil-based foils have become more expensive due to the Middle East conflict. Experts report rising material prices across the board. In particular, mineral-oil-based products such as bitumen, polystyrene insulation, and foils are affected. The roofing market feels this directly in bid calculations.
What happens if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked?
Through the Strait of Hormuz, the world transports about one-fifth of all oil shipments. A blockade would trigger a massive energy price shock—comparable to or worse than 2022's surge due to the Ukraine conflict. This would drastically increase production costs for energy-intensive construction materials and severely disrupt supply chains.
Which roofing materials are most affected by price fluctuations?
Particularly affected are construction materials with high energy intensity in production: cement and concrete, steel and reinforcing steel, polystyrene insulation materials, bitumen, and natural gas- and mineral-oil-based foils. Wood and natural slate are less directly affected, but logistics costs also play a role there.
How can I, as a roofer, reduce my operating risk?
Three levers have a direct effect: 1) Digital measurement - with precise 3D data from drone surveys, your calculations become more accurate and you avoid expensive post-corrections. 2) Flexible purchasing strategy - multiple suppliers, framework contracts, and forward-looking orders protect against bottlenecks. 3) Price escalation clauses - protect your bids from unpredictable changes in material costs.
Why do construction loan rates rise due to geopolitical conflicts?
When energy prices rise sharply due to conflicts, the European Central Bank may respond with interest-rate hikes to curb inflation. This directly leads to higher construction loan rates, making investments in new builds and renovations more expensive and dampening demand.
